[kisito]

It may not happen in our lifetime that English will drop. The spread and dominance of a language has always been consistent with the economic, military and political superiority of a country and its ability to poject itself beyond its shores. Once upon a time it was the Romans who conquered much of Europe and forced nations to speak Latin.But Latin had a weakness that would kill it after the collapse of the Roman empire. It was a bloody difficult language with the most complex grammar system I have ever seen (I studied Latin for 5 years). As a result this confined Latin to the educated class. The common person had to speak a sub-standard latin. But when the Roman empire fell, people were just so happy to drop the language or speak an adapted form. Unlike Latin English leaves room for forgiveness. It is a language that is defined by the popular vote. Unlike French which has the educated “Academie Francaise” which decides what becomes standard French, English is defined by the common people. In other words it is a less elitist language than French and Latin.
Why English is at such a strong position now is really for several reasons. One of the key reasons is the fact that once the British empire covered a massive amount of the earth's surface and therefore turned English from an obscure language to a global language. The second key reason is that by the time the British empire fell or I would say contracted, it had spread English to a country that was poised to be the next giant empire - enter the USA. English adapts and survives under every circumstance we have seen and that may explain why people feel OK living with it.
The US is yet to collapse. Well, many people have seen the weakening of the American empire as a sign of the end. Also they see the rise of China as the next. I would say do not count the yankees out just yet. The US has always found ways to reinvent itself and who knows. They are the most technologically advanced country with dominace everywhere. The internet has further come to strengthen the position of English – 80% of web content is in English.
Also people think that because Chinese has the largest number of speakers it may help the spread of Chinese. The Chinese are a good example of how the language spreads only when a power projects itself beyond its shores. For a long time Chinese was the language with the most speakers, but confined to one country.
The Chinese are on the rise politically and economically and the language is spreading fast. But we can be sure that Chinese will only try to share the stage with English. First of all like Latin, Chinese has a major weakness. It is not the easiest language to learn to speak or write. Also we do not know how long China will continue to rise. A country with 1.5 billion mouths to feed and whose economy for now is highly dependent on trade with the US is not signs of an empire that will rise to topple the US. Military and technological developments are exact copies of the west. It will take a sudden genius barrage of inventions of new technology from China to outshine the US. I just don’t see it. But China I have no doubts will rise to share that power. But it is funny that as Chinese spreads, English spreads even more in China. It is just a part of the education system.
So what is all this rambling about? Simply put, English will continue to dominate in our lifetime and our Children’s lifetime. Chinese by it’s nature already has handicaps. China is on the rise but how much is still to be seen. There is no next language in site overtaking English as a global language of communication. Judging from my experience learning Latin, French and Chinese, I do see weaknesses in these languages that is not the case with English. With English you can still communicate with broken sentences and a poor accent. Try speaking broken Chinese, most people do not easily catch you. Chinese is a language of tones. A word spoken in the first tone or accent has a different meaning to another word in the second, third or fourth tones or accents. English tolerates and accomodates a wide variety of accents. I just need to readjust my listening when talking to a British, Australian, Indian or American speaker – We still communicate well.
By the way learning Chinese is good for you. The language will not dominate but will surely share the stage with English as an influential partner.